The KPMG aged care market analysis points to a clear shift: as the Australian aged care market reshapes, more families are planning for home care that is reliable, premium and easy to manage. For time-poor adult children in suburbs like Toorak, Hawthorn or Brighton, the headline is simple — use the report to pick providers that offer continuity, clear data, and flexible services so your parents stay safe and comfortable at home.
TL;DR
- The aged care sector is consolidating as large providers acquire share and smaller ones exit; the top 25 residential providers now control 46.4% of the market.
- Demand for home care is skyrocketing, with over 352,000 people accessing government Home Care Packages (now called Support at Home or SAH), compared to roughly 260,000 in residential care.
- Residential vacancies fell by 15.5% in FY25, pushing average occupancy to 89.9%, making home-based care an increasingly practical necessity.
- Prioritise providers with strong technology backbones and clinical governance, as these are attracting the most investment and delivering the most consistent outcomes.
Key insights from the KPMG aged care market analysis
Market consolidation and the mix of providers
The aged care sector is experiencing accelerated consolidation driven by high construction costs and regulatory reforms. While the number of residential providers fell to 636, the Home Care market grew to 873 providers, including 14 new entrants in FY25 - many moving over from the NDIS or allied health sectors.
Large operators are expanding through acquisition activity, while smaller providers are often exiting as they struggle with new registration categories.
Residential aged care dynamics: occupancy and operational places
The analysis highlights a sharp increase in occupancy rates. Unoccupied operational places dropped significantly from 26,843 to 22,674. With no new residential providers entering the market in FY25 due to capital-intensive models, expansion is now driven by "incremental bed activation" within existing homes rather than new builds.
This creates growing pressure on bed availability, making premium private home care a more flexible and immediate alternative.
Home care momentum: demand, data and technologies
Home care demand is expected to grow by 34,500 people per year, reaching an estimated 1.82 million people by 2044. Government funding for Support at Home (SaH) has reached nearly $10 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24%.
Families now favour "innovative, self-managed care models" and providers who use technology-enabled operating models to provide regular insights and better clinical governance.
Policy and regulation: Support at Home
The introduction of the Support at Home program in November 2025 is the biggest regulatory shift in a generation. It was designed to enable people to stay at home longer and delay entry into residential care.
(Note: the reality has been long waits, increased contributions and confusion about services. At Acquaint we're seeing increased demand for private services as people move away from government funded care.)
What this means for families choosing private home care now
Continuity and scale
While not-for-profits dominate the top 25 (accounting for 16 of the 25 largest HCP providers), for-profit providers have grown their share to 40%. Look for providers who maintain stable teams and can scale from entry-level support to complex nursing and overnight care like Acquaint.
The disruptor advantage
Innovative models, like the low-fee self-managed options offered by providers, are gaining massive traction because they offer consumers more control.
Melbourne vs regional
While inner Melbourne enjoys strong competition, the report indicates that funding is shifting toward operators outside the largest tier. Ensure your provider has strong local relationships and a technology backbone to manage care seamlessly across different postcodes.
Why the market shifts matter to your family
The market analysis points to a world where choice grows at home but becomes more selective in facilities. With residential occupancy measured at 94% against available beds, the "wait-and-see" approach for a facility move is becoming riskier.
Families benefit when they partner with home care providers who invest in people and systems—achieving high-quality outcomes while keeping costs under control.
Chat with our friendly team about private home care
If you want practical next steps - without the homework - have a chat with our friendly team on 03 9267 9090. We’ll map a plan for your parents that fits today and scales tomorrow: the right visits, the same friendly faces, clear pricing, and updates you can trust.
Serving Toorak and greater Melbourne, we can start quickly and keep you informed every step. Call now to secure care that brings the best of the Australian aged care market to your parents’ home.
Last updated: April 2026
